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The firms view is that the Feds most likely to put off tapering at next weeks meeting, an outcome to which it assigns a 55% probability. Even if the Fed does begin to taper its bond purchases, the firm expects a smaller start, in the range of $10-15 billion, than a bigger start of $20 billion or more. Additionally, the firm thinks MBS issuance is going to slow dramatically in the coming months, meaning the Fed would have to taper its purchases of MBS by an even larger amount to have a visible effect on rates.
Hedge funds look to be betting the year's solid equity gains will continue. One investor in hedge funds said equity long/short hedge funds, who bet on shares rising and falling, had increased their net U.S. long positions by 2 percent post-Fed, with Europe up a little and emerging markets by over 10 percent.
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This trend accelerated with the global financial crisis in2008, which showed how problems in one country could easilyspill over into another, and countries and citizens asked formore information about possibly sensitive financial issues.
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